The Diwali Fireworks Ban and the "Bike-Shed Effect"

The Hon’ble Supreme Court’s order banning the sale of firecrackers for Diwali not only astounded, but also intrigued me. The intentions are surely noble. Indeed, atmospheric pollution and environmental degradation are serious challenges that all of humanity and not just the nation faces. No two thoughts about it.

Yet, the controversy surrounding the order precipitated enough curiosity for me to attempt estimating the impact of firecrackers during Diwali.

Dispassionate Assessment of Impact

Extrapolating the estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of India in 2011, one would get to about 4,000 million metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2017. This works out to roughly, say, 12 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent (MtCO2e) per day on weekdays and, say, 6 MtCO2e per day during weekends.

Now, it has also been estimated that fireworks during Diwali add about 60,000 tCO2e of GHG pollutants to the atmosphere. That is about 1% of the pan-India daily GHG emission over the weekends.

The National Capital Region of Delhi, with its population of about 26 million (or, 2% of India’s population), perhaps accounts for 10% of GHG emission on fireworks. A reasonable assumption since the per capita income levels of Delhi are much higher.

So the GHG emissions due to fireworks during Diwali in Delhi would be about 6,000 tCO2e. That works out to 0.1% of all India GHG emissions on the day of Diwali. Or, about 0.00015% of the annual GHG emissions of India. Or, about one in 667,000 parts of the annual air pollution of India.

That is an itsy-bitsy, teensy-weensy, miniscule drop in the mighty ocean of pollution!

The Easy Way

Of course, supporters of the Apex Court Orders would peddle the contrarian view that little drops make the mighty ocean. What they forget though is that it is more prudent to adopt a “Pareto Analysis” approach for identifying more effective ways of reducing pollution.

So, the tokenism and symbolism of it all is crystal clear. It reaffirms the “Parkinson’s Law of Triviality” (or, the “Bike-shed Effect”) mindset within us. Insofar as the air quality standards of Delhi are concerned, I dare say that the ban is a feeble attempt tantamount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

But then, such slipshod actions, knee-jerk reactions, sub-optimal solutions, half-baked conclusions have always been a bane besotting governance and dominating public discourse in the country. Guess banning other “24x7-polluting” lifestyle habits and “non-ecology-friendly” entertainment activities such as a/c multiplexes, carbonated drinks, television, amusement parks, etc., would have been deemed too extremist and hence taboo.

After all, we crave for the feeling that enough is being done to solve our problems.

Else, it becomes difficult to deal with our conscience and live with our guilt, right?